GTA 6 delayed again: How does this impact the industry?
Blog Andrew Joseph 14 Nov , 2025 0
Grand Theft Auto VI has been delayed again, this time to November 19, 2026, and while the fan base has their own opinions, the impact isn't limited to the eager Grand Theft Auto audience. “Grand Theft Auto” is a masterpiece, “GTA V” has sold 220 million copies to date, “GTA Online” continues to be popular month after month, and people's anticipation for the sequel has broken trailer viewing records. With this game launching so hot, what does delaying it by a year mean for everyone else? How will GTA VI's delays affect the wider gaming industry?
As usual, we consulted a panel of our favorite industry analysts to get their take.
delayed ripple
It may go without saying, but GTA VI's delay to November 2026 also means that dozens of publishers are re-evaluating their planned release dates behind the scenes.
Analysts point out that not many games currently have public release dates specifically set for the last three months of 2026. But the company certainly has its own internal plans, and those plans have been actively maneuvering around GTA VI's delay, but have been kept out of sight. Rhys Elliott, head of market analysis at Alinea Analytics, said this could mean far fewer games being released during a period that would normally be packed with games.
“Historically, publishers have avoided launching any major games within a few weeks of a Rockstar game being released. Unfortunately, GTA now once again falls squarely in the usually overcrowded holiday window. I can see the typical fourth-quarter blockbuster season looking pretty weak in 2026, especially on the single-player front.”
Manu Rosier, director of market intelligence at Newzoo, agreed, noting that major publishers may have simulated multiple scenarios including GTA VI delays and made plans on where to move their games — plans that could benefit them in the long run.
“Newzoo's game-level data shows that since 2021, nearly 45% of major single-player game launches have been released between August and November, and games released at the end of these years performed approximately 25-35% worse than games released between February and May during the first three months of play,” Rosier said. “This means that getting rid of this crowded window may benefit GTA VI and other games released nearby.”
Even if a release date isn't confirmed yet, there are a few games we can definitely count on launching later this year, such as the Call of Duty games, EA Sports FC, and Madden. Analysts tell me that GTA VI's delay will likely cause at least some of them to leave their usual corner of later this year and head to another date, either earlier or later than usual.
“GTA will also steal engagement and revenue from current live service giants like Fortnite and Roblox, which are always in an engagement tug-of-war no matter what,” Elliott continued. “All of these games – and really the entire entertainment industry – will compete with GTA VI for time and attention. Money and time are limited, so GTA will eat up revenue and engagement across the market.”
Rosier disagrees, saying live gaming will largely be unaffected by GTA VI, no matter where it lands.
“Newzoo’s engagement data shows that average monthly playtime for the top 20 console games continues to grow year over year, with live games accounting for more than half of total console playtime. Whether GTA VI launches in the spring or later in 2026, these ecosystems will maintain momentum.”
It's not just AAA games that are affected. Omdia senior principal analyst George Jijiashvili said that after GTA VI was delayed twice and still has a full year to go, major publishers will be wary of making major changes to their dates. “The real impact will be on indie and AA games, which are most sensitive to major releases and are likely to feel a larger ripple effect.”
Holiday upgrade
However, while there may be fewer new games launching around the 2026 holidays, analysts are optimistic about hardware sales.
“This is a big issue I’ve been discussing with retailers and publishers for years,” said Mat Piscatella, senior director at Circana. “When GTA V launched, there was a positive impact on console hardware and accessory sales in the launch month, but that incremental increase was short-lived, after which sales more or less returned to their previous baseline. But that didn't happen during the holiday window, so I expect the positive impact here may be more profound. Let's call the holiday quarter incremental global console hardware sales in the range of 250,000 to 800,000 units, which is higher than GTA 6's expectations (yes, that's a big number. Range).”
Piscatella added that if the PC version were released around the same time, it would boost sales of PC hardware and accessories in the same way. However, he warned that he was predicting the future based on what happened when GTA V launched over a decade ago. Things may be different now.
But Elliott did agree with him, noting that the launch of College Football 25 last year boosted sales of the PS5 and Xbox series in the U.S. last year. GTA VI is bigger.
“While most games are on PS5, a large portion of PlayStation monthly active users are still on PS4, and GTA VI will not be released on last-generation consoles,” he said. “Many holdout gamers have been waiting specifically for GTA to justify buying a PS5 (or Series X/S). This wave of new console owners and their spending has now been pushed back to 2027.”
Piers Harding-Rolls, research director at Ampere Analytics, also noted that “console sales will pick up more than normal in 2026,” telling me that he thinks hardware makers will celebrate the move: “Generally speaking, in terms of timing of launches that generate the most console sales, I think Q4 launches are better than Q2.”
Will this delay affect GTA VI sales?
No.
In fact, every analyst I asked said no, GTA VI's delays won't impact its sales. Piscatella and Rozier said that people's interest and anticipation for “Grand Theft Auto 6” are unprecedentedly high, which is unprecedented in history. Piscatella added that the release of “GTA VI” in November could make the fourth quarter of 2026 the highest quarter in the history of U.S. game spending.
“Grand Theft Auto is such an outlier franchise that the sky is really the limit when it comes to this stuff, and because it's such an outlier in so many ways, there's no real baseline from which to generate reliable predictions.”
Other impacts
Analysts I spoke to also mentioned other possible effects of delays that I hadn't considered. One of the big questions was whether delays to GTA VI would also delay the release of next-gen consoles, something that turned out to be controversial.
Other effects are more… psychological. Elliott noted that GTA VI could very well be a cultural moment where entertainment, the internet, and social identities all collide in a very public way. While it's impossible to say exactly how the delay affects it, the timing of GTA VI's release will inevitably be caught up in a very specific cultural time and moment in politics and online culture, and will influence and be influenced by what's going on around it.
“Every major release of Grand Theft Auto has shaped the way people joke, the way popular music is played, the image of cities in art and media, and even how players view the idea of rebellion in their daily lives,” he said. “If it launches in holiday 2025 or early to mid-2026, this cultural shift will happen in a very specific online environment that is driven by TikTok, Reels, YouTube Shorts and live broadcasts for social dominance. This timing will allow GTA to be the loudest voice in the conversation driven by rapid content remixes and continued viral cycles. In other words, the memes that could define 2026 will take shape in 2027!”
Rozier also raised the issue of psychological impact, but from a different angle. His point is that regardless of when the game releases, the delay itself is a sign that something bigger is happening in the AAA games industry, and other major publishers are paying close attention:
“GTA VI's delay exacerbates the growing tension between creative ambition and production realities in AAA development. It's another sign that even the most established studios are struggling to balance scale, technology and timelines.
“Newzoo’s historical engagement data shows that single-player games typically retain 40% of active players in Week 5, level off between Weeks 6 and 12, and only drop about 1% each week thereafter. This means publishers can fill the gaps between major releases with live service content, updates, or Early Access cadences to maintain engagement.
“From a market perspective, the broader PC and console market is expected to reach $85.8 billion in 2025 and continue to grow through 2028, driven by increased participation rather than expanding releases. Publishers are recognizing that the biggest risk to the industry is not reduced releases but announcing too early.”
Joost van Dreunen, professor at New York University Stern School of Business, ” SuperJoost Playlist Newsletteralso thinking along similar lines. As he noted, the industry has been through a rough patch over the past few years, with massive layoffs, game cancellations, studio closures, price increases and general economic uncertainty. While much of the industry believes that GTA VI could rise up and become the savior of the industry, van Drunen warns against putting too much hope in one game – even one as big as GTA VI:
“After the excitement comes the hangover,” he said. “I realize that many in the industry were looking forward to this undoubtedly pivotal moment. There was even a naïve expectation that this release would reverse the current direction of the industry. But that was not the case. Once Take-Two released the game and players and investors alike enjoyed their respective highs, I expected a period of sobriety to follow. In the absence of any similar releases in the near future, investors in particular may redeploy their funds elsewhere, lowering the industry's overall valuation.”
It's clear that GTA VI's delay to November 19, 2026 has caused a huge stir across the industry, and will continue to do so next year, as the impact of its absence in the spring and release in the fall is more keenly felt. Elsewhere we have introduced Who wins and who loses due to delaythis Internet reaction to newsand What does Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick have to say about this?.
Rebekah Valentine is a senior reporter at IGN. You can find her posts at BlueSky @duckvalentine.bsky.social. Have a story tip? Send it to [email protected].